New growth models exhibit "scale effects," meaning that variations in the levels of key variables exert permanent influences on growth rates. Such predictions run counter to recent empirical evidence. In this paper we extend a general non-scale model to the open economy. With complete capital...

This paper explores the relationship between aggregate and relative congestion, returns to scale and economic growth. Aggregate congestion reduces the effective productivity of capital; relative congestion reduces the effective productivity of labour. Both forms of congestion adversely affect...

The recent empirical literature on the economic effects of terms of trade shocks highlights not only the direct effects on growth, but also the resulting changes in volatility and debt. We link the procyclicality of sovereign debt to terms of trade shocks and provide theoretical underpinnings...

Neoclassical and endogenous growth models yield strikingly different predictions regarding the determinants of long-run growth rates and their implications for long-run cross-country convergence characteristics. On the one hand, Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) and Barro and Salai-Martin (1995)...

The literature measuring the impact of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) and WTO membership on trade flows has produced remarkably diverse results. Rose''s (2004) seminal paper reports a range of specifications that show no WTO effects, but Subramanian and Wei (2007) contend that he does not...

A dynamic dependent-economy model is developed to investigate the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign aid. If capital is perfectly mobile between sectors, untied aid has no longrun impact on the real exchange rate. A decline in the traded sector occurs because...

US productivity growth surged twice post 1995 and post 2000. In contrast Germany registered two successive productivity reductions during that same period of time. Previous analysis of the post-2000 decline has been limited, however, by the short time series of the available data. In this paper...

While the US experienced two successive labor productivity surges in 1995 and 2000, Germany's productivity declined dramatically during the same period. We examine the sources of Germany's productivity demise using the ifo industry growth accounting database that provides detailed industry-level...

We investigate country heterogeneity in cross-country growth regressions. In contrast to the previous literature that focuses on low-income countries, this study also highlights growth determinants in high-income (OECD) countries. We introduce Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) to address...

In this paper we present a new database that allows deep industry-level growth accounting from 1991-2003. The database allows for the first complete analysis of the German industry performance drivers based on the contributions of 12 asset types in 52 different industries. The industry sources...