The mid-term review of the WTO Doha Round of trade negotiations held recently in Cancun was concluded in a premature fashion by the hosts. Participants were not moving forward towards a process that would see the talks move towards a final agreement in 2004. This was a disappointment for New...

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to...

The idea of the European Union is to achieve greater harmonisation across member states through a common monetary policy, more trade in goods and services, freer capital markets and more labour market integration. These ingredients are expected to make the countries more similar with respect to...

ERES:conference

Forecasting returns for particular sectors and markets is perforce an exercise in generalities. Forecasting models use historical relationships between returns and their drivers to estimate likely future returns for an office market, for example. The risk to that forecast is defined in terms of...

ERES:conference

Property performance forecasts in the UK are based both on econometric and qualitative methodologies and are produced by in house teams of firms and consultancies. These forecasts are for client use and hence they are not broadly circulated. In the last seven years the Investment Property Forum...

The fall in property yields since 2001 and in particular in 2004 that resulted in strong total property returns both in the UK and the continent had three major implications for future research on property yields. First, it highlighted the need to assess models and methodologies of yield...

A key reason for US capital looking for investment opportunities in Europe and European capital in the US is diversification that is exposure to different economic real estate market cycles. Indeed investors seek to exploit diverse economic trends, country characteristics and property market...