This paper proposes and tests a new framework for weighting recursive out-of-sample prediction errors in accordance with their corresponding in-sample estimation uncertainty. In essence, we show how as much information from the sample as possible can be used in the evaluation of prediction...

We consider the finite sample properties of model selection by information criteria in conditionally heteroscedastic models. Recent theoretical results show that certain popular criteria are consistent in that they will select the true model asymptotically with probability 1. To examine the...

This article considers the application to regional price data of time series methods to test stationarity, multivariate cointegration and exogeneity. The discovery of stationary price differentials in a bivariate setting implies that the series are rendered stationary by capturing a common trend...

This article describes a characterisation of competitive market behaviour using the concepts of cointegration analysis. It requires all (n) firms to set prices to follow a single stochastic trend (equivalently the vector of n prices should have cointegrating rank n-1). This implies that, in the...

Co-integration, equilibrium and equilibrium correction are key concepts in modern applications of econometrics to real world problems. This book provides direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists. Econometric theory is linked to practical issues...

The empirical size and power properties of the Johansen vector autoregression based trace test for cointegration are considered in the case where the data is generated by a sequence of vector moving average processes with declining degrees of non-cointegration. Rejection frequencies are...

This paper is set to investigate the existence of spillover effects for the trading process of correlated financial instruments. While the main literature in price impact models has focused mainly on multivariate processes for a unique asset, we argue that transitory spillover effects in such...

The focus of this paper is on the study of the drivers of a cross market arbitrage profit. Many papers have investigated the risk of trading arbitrage opportunities and the empirical existence of these events at the high frequency level for different markets. But none of the previous work has...