Hidden Markov Models can be considered an extension of mixture models, allowing fordependent observations. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we show how ReversibleJump Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques can be used to estimate the parameters of amodel, as well as the number of regimes. We...

<font size="2" face="CMR10"><font size="2" face="CMR10">In this paper we propose an exchange rate model as solution of a disutility based drift control problem. Assuming the exchange rate is a function of the fundamental, we suppose that Government Authorities control the fundamental's dynamics aimed at minimizing thediscounted expected disutility...</font></font>

This work deals with the problem of investors' irrational behavior and financial products' misperception. The theoretical analysis of the mechanisms driving wrong evaluations of investment performances is explored. The study is supported by the application of Monte Carlo simulations to the...

Recent policy proposals call for setting up a benchmark indexed bond market to prevent "Sudden Stops". This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of these bonds using a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with financial frictions. In the absence of indexed bonds, negative...

Base rate neglect has been shown to be a very robust bias in human information processing. It has also been show to be ecologically rational in some environments. However, when arguing about base rate neglect usually isolated individuals are considered. I complement these results by showing that...

In this paper we show that if all agents are equipped with well-behaved discrete concave production functions, then a feasible price allocation pair is a market equilibrium if and only if it solves a linear programming problem. Using this result we are able to obtain a necessary and sufficient...

The paper revisits dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) and proposes a new way in dealing with the limitation of the classical affine models. In particular, this paper expands the flexibility of the DTSMs by applying a fractional Brownian motion as the governing force of the state variable...

By following the spirit in Favero and Milani (2005), we use recursive thick modeling to take into account model uncertainty for the choice of optimal monetary policy. We consider an open economy model and generate multiple models for only the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Models are...

We measure the economic capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with asset pricing theory. Based on Barnett’s [4] definition of the economic stock of money, we estimate the expected discounted flow of expenditure on the...