We develop a structural default model for interconnected financial institutions in a probabilistic framework. For all possible network structures we characterize the joint default distribution of the system using Bayesian network methodologies. Particular emphasis is given to the treatment and...

Continuous time models have been elevated to great importance in the modelling of time series data, in response to the successful options pricing model of Black and Scholes (1973), among other things. In 2004, Kluppelberg, Lindner, and Maller introduced the “COGARCH” model as a...

We study the lead-lag dependence between aggregate credit spreads and equity prices as well as implied equity volatility, which is important for proper credit risk assessment. Our analysis includes daily quotes of the iTraxx Europe index, the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the Dow Jones...