Economic models that incorporate expectations require non causal time series theory. We provide a general method useful to solve in closed form any forward linear rational expectations multivariate model. An anticipative VARMA model is likely to explain a behavioral relation were a tentative...

Economic models that incorporate expectations require non causal time series theory. We provide a general method useful to solve in closed form any forward linear rational expectations multivariate model. An anticipative VARMA model is likely to explain a behavioral relation were a tentative...

This paper explores the behavior of real commodity prices over a 50–year period. Attention is given to how the fundamentals for various commodity prices have changed with a special emphasis on behavior since the mid 2000s. To identify changing commodity price fundamentals we estimate...

The paper develops a unit-root test that allows for an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown functional forms. The test is based on the fact that the behavior of such series can often be captured using a single frequency component of a Fourier approximation. Hence, instead of...

The paper develops a theoretical model such that the performance of the macroeconomy is consistent with optimizing the behavior of rational individuals. It demonstrates that, in principle, it is possible to convert existing trade barriers into tariffs by using the price-gap method. In practice,...

If the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs reduces foreign trade barriers against U.S. farm exports, special interest groups in affected nations will seek other forms of protection. It would not be surprising if some of our trading partners used general macroeconomic policies to promote...

This paper explores the behavior of real commodity prices over a 50–year period. Attention is given to how the fundamentals for various commodity prices have changed with a special emphasis on behavior since the mid 2000s. To identify changing commodity price fundamentals we estimate...

If the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs reduces foreign trade barriers against U.S. farm exports, special interest groups in affected nations will seek other forms of protection. It would not be surprising if some of our trading partners used general macroeconomic policies to promote...

The paper develops a theoretical model such that the performance of the macroeconomy is consistent with optimizing the behavior of rational individuals. It demonstrates that, in principle, it is possible to convert existing trade barriers into tariffs by using the price-gap method. In practice,...