The general view of the economics profession is that we can not explain exchange rate movements. However, some researchers still contend that the relationship between real interest rates and the real exchange rate is a useful framework for thinking about exchange rate movements. This paper asks...

Recent attention has focused on measures of the dollar's effective exchange rate amid disappointment by some observers with the response of the U.S. trade balance to the depreciation of the dollar since February 1985. In particular, these observers suggest that the traditional indexes, which...

If forecasts of economic activity are to rely on preliminary data, the predictable component of the data revisions should be taken into account. This paper applies the Kalman filter to improve the forecast accuracy of published preliminary estimates of retail sales. Successive estimates of...