This article analyzes how macroeconomic fundamentals and high price-earnings ratios on stocks will affect long-run returns. The first section reviews the stock market's recent performance and describes how investors and analysts have reacted to this performance. The second section shows how...

The U.S. Congress is evaluating several proposals to reform the federal income tax system. Proponents of tax reform want to simplify tax preparation and stimulate economic growth by increasing the incentives for taxpayers to work, save, and invest. While the primary objective of tax reform is a...

One of the most important costs of inflation is the uncertainty it creates about future inflation. This uncertainty clouds the decisionmaking of consumers and businesses and reduces economic well-being. Without this uncertainty, consumers and businesses could better plan for the future....

The U.S. Congress is considering several strategies to reform the federal income tax system. The most widely discussed strategy, a flat tax, would tax income received by businesses and individuals at the same low, flat rate. Flat tax proposals would eliminate most tax deductions and tax credits...

Models of the monetary transmission mechanism often generate empirically implausible business fluctuations. This paper analyzes the role of on-the-job search in the propagation of monetary shocks in a sticky price model with labor market search frictions. Such frictions induce long-term...

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy applied to direct, multi-step predictions from both non-nested and nested linear regression models. In contrast to earlier work -- including West (1996), Clark and McCracken (2001, 2005),and...

We investigate implications of search and matching frictions in the labor market for in ation targeting interest rate policy in terms of equilibrium stability. When the interest rate is set in response to past or present in ation, determinacy of equilibrium is ensured similarly to comparable...

This paper investigates potential market forces that cause payment card rewards even when providing payment card rewards is not the most efficient. Three factors-oligopolistic merchants, output-maximizing card networks, and the merchant's inability to set different prices across payment...

This paper examines the dynamics of various measures of national, regional, and global inflation. The paper calculates the first two common factors for four measures of industrial country inflation rates: total CPI, core CPI, cyclical total CPI, and cyclical core CPI. The paper then demonstrates...