We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model. The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends. Forecasts from such models may therefore depend on arbitrary linear trends. A condition for invariant...

We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model.  The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends.  Forecasts from such models may therefore depend on arbitrary linear trends.  A condition for invariant...

We consider the identification problem for the model of Lee and Carter (1992). The parameters of this model are known only to be identified up to certain transformations. Forecasts from the model may therefore depend on the arbitrarily chosen identification scheme. A condition for invariant...