In recent decades, the concept of subjective probability has been increasingly applied to an adversary’s choices in strategic games. A careful examination reveals that the standard construction of subjective probabilities does not apply in this context. We show how the difficulty may be...

This document contains four separate analyses, each with a different author, of the "Gans" committee report on the Bible codes (DP 364 of the Center for the Study of Rationality, June 2004). The analyses appear in alphabetical order of the authors' names. Three of the authors were members of the...

Consciousness is the last great frontier of science. Here we discuss what it is, how it differs fundamentally from other scientific phenomena, what adaptive function it serves, and the difficulties in trying to explain how it works. The emphasis is on the adaptive function.

Money provides liquidity services through a cash-in-advance constraint. The exchange of commodities and assets extends over an infinite horizon under uncertainty and a sequentially complete asset market. Monetary policy sets the path of rates of interest and accommodates the demand for balances....

In [1], it was shown that in games of perfect information, common knowledge of rationality entails that the backward induction outcome is reached, and is consistent (for short, entails BI). That work has been criticized because it assumes that a player chooses rationally at all his nodes, even...

Whoever exists belongs to a species, which did not become extinct, has a (geno-) type, which should be well adjusted, and lives in a habitat which has been sustainable for a long time. To capture the first aspect we allow for interspecies competition and analyze the conditions for species...