Central bank economists have to understand and forecast macroeconomic time series. A serious problem that they face is that those series are often trended or a.ected by persistent innovations to the process. To try to get round this problem, or at least to understand its possible e.ects, it is...

The EU's leaders are not taking constitutional reform seriously. An analysis of the history of the development of federal states suggests that they are unlikely to do so until a crisis precipitates action. The current constitutional arrangements and those proposed by the constitutional...