In this study, we analyze whether volatility forecasts (judgmental confidence intervals) are influenced by the specific elicitation mode (i.e. whether forecasters have to state future price levels or directly future returns as upper and lower bounds). We present questionnaire responses of about...

Empirical research documents that temporary trends in stock price movements exist so that riding a trend can be a profitable investment strategy. In this paper, we provide a thorough test of the trend recognition and forecasting ability of financial professionals who work in the trading room of...

In this study, we analyze whether volatility forecasts (judgmental confidence intervals) are influenced by the specific elicitation mode (i.e. whether forecasters have to state future price levels or directly future returns as upper and lower bounds). We present questionnaire responses of about...

Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent research, however, questions whether overconfidence should be regarded as a bias and shows that...

Studies analyzing return expectations of financial market participants like fund managers, CFOs or individual investors are highly influential in academia and practice. Examples of such surveys in the U.S. are the Livingston Survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Surveys of...

This study offers the unique opportunity to analyze how an unprecedented crisis such as the September 11 tragedy in uences expected returns and volatility forecasts of individual investors. Via e-mail, we asked a randomly selected group of individual investors with accounts at a German online...

Behavoiral finance as a subdiscipline of behavorial economics is finance incorporating findings from psychology and sociology into its theories.