This paper explores the following question - Has there been any long-run increase (or decrease) in the ‘incidence’ of long-term unemployment once we have corrected for cyclical factors? Our research leads us to conclude: (i) that the incidence of male long-term unemployment has been neither...

It is important to understand how labour markets in different regions are affected by ‘common’ or ‘national’ shocks including national macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal policies. This paper applies a new econometric approach - involving an unobserved components model - to identify the...

A social accounting matrix is a framework for organising information about income, expenditure and financial flows in the economy. This paper describes a methodology for compiling such a matrix for the Australian economy as it existed in 1996-97. It distinguishes between five institutions,...

The purpose of this paper is to use a large data set comprising individual’s responses to survey questions about future economic conditions, unemployment and prices to explore lay people’s models of the economy and specifically their understanding of the relationship between unemployment and...

A general parametric framework is developed for pricing S&P500 options. Skewness and leptokurtosis in stock returns as well as time-varying volatility are priced. The parametric pricing model nests the Black-Scholes model and can explain volatility smiles and skews in stock options. The data...

This paper examines the role of interest rate policy in a small open economy subject to terms of trade shocks and time-varying currency risk responding to domestic exchange rate volatility. The private sector makes optimal decisions in an intertemporal non-linear setting with...

In this paper we look at the way in which the ABS derives gross flows data from successive Labour Force Surveys. The procedure used by the ABS is described and a measure of the 'matching rate' obtained. We develop a simple theoretical model designed to explore the relationship between the Labour...

This paper is concerned with the relationship between the interest rate smoothing behavior of a central bank and the variability of inflation and output. The issue is analyzed through the lens of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nontraded goods price...

Volatility smiles arise in currency option markets when empirical exchange rate returns distributions exhibit leptokurtosis. This feature of empirical distributions is symptomatic of turbulent periods when exchange rate movements are in excess of movements based on the assumption of normality....