This article provides a first analysis of the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth obtained from the Bank of England's Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses, recently made...

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of SETAR and GARCHmodels against a linear benchmark using historical data for two bilateral dollarexchange rates, namely the Japanese Yen and the British Pound. The analysis is carried out with series sampled at weekly and daily...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the out-of-sample performance of SETAR models using daily data for the Euro effective exchange rate. The evaluation is conducted on point, interval and density forecasts. The benchmark used for the comparison is a linear AR model for point forecast evaluation...

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of SETAR and GARCHmodels against a linear benchmark using historical data for two bilateral dollarexchange rates, namely the Japanese Yen and the British Pound. The analysis is carried out with series sampled at weekly and daily...

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non-linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of this work is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of some of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the...

In this paper we conduct a Monte Carlo study to determine the power of Pearson’s overall goodness-of-fit test as well as the “Pearson analog” tests (see Anderson (1994)) to detect rejections due to shifts in variance, skewness and kurtosis, as we vary the number and location of the...

The properties of Pearson’s goodness-of-fit test, as used in density forecast evaluation, income distribution analysis and elsewhere, are analysed. The components-of-chi-squared or “Pearson analog” tests of Anderson (1994) are shown to be less generally applicable than was originally...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the out-of-sample performance of SETAR models relative to a linear AR and a GARCH model using daily data for the Euro effective exchange rate. The evaluation is conducted on point, interval and density forecasts, unconditionally, over the whole forecast...

This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth, and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple...