We re-examine the Mehra and Prescott (1985) model. Allowing the time preference factor to be greater than one resolves the "equity premium puzzle." We show that this solution is consistent with finite expected utility and a positive risk-free rate of interest. For somewhat higher values of...

We examine the in- and out-of-sample behavior of two popular trading systems, Alexander and Double MA filters, for fourteen developed-country currencies using daily data with bid-ask spreads. We find significant in-sample returns in the early periods. But out-of-sample returns are lower and only...

Empirical confirmation that the effect of macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rates is economically important has been scarce. This paper employs a general GARCH specification with asymmetric responses to investigate the effect of 35 U.S. and German macroeconomic news announcements on the...

I derive a dynamic version of the Dornbusch “overshooting” model in which real yields and inflation vary stochastically, and the exchange rate (FX) delivers UIRP in expectations. Tests using the model provide support for the UIRP proposition. Simulations show that the “disconnect” of FX...

We show that even when quot;fundamentalsquot; are i.i.d., a three-period OLG competitive model produces negatively autocorrelated expected returns, market risk premia, and prices. This negative autocorrelation arises out of market interactions between consumers that are ex-ante identical but...

Stock market returns are known to be significantly correlated with inflation and money growth. The impact of real macroeconomic variables on aggregate equity returns has been difficult to establish, perhaps because their effects are neither linear nor time-invariant. We estimate a GARCH model of...