Models are the medium by which we reflect and express our understanding of some aspect of reality, a particular unknown of interest. As it is virtually impossible to grasp any situation in its entire complexity, models are representations of reality that are always partial resulting in a state...

We study persuasion mechanisms in linear environments. A privately informed receiver chooses between two actions. A sender designs a persuasion mechanism that can condition the information disclosed to the receiver on the receiver's report about his type. We establish the equivalence of...

We analyze a psychologically-based model of voter turnout in an election with common value and uncertainty. Our model yields distinctive comparative statics results. First, an increase in the proportion of informed citizens may cause the winning margin for the right candidate to either rise or...

Purpose: The Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) neural network has demonstrated good performance in data mining, prediction, and optimization. Scholars have used it to forecast stock and real estate investment trust (REIT) returns in some countries and region, but not in the United States (US)...

We propose a new investment strategy, the improved cross-asset time-series momentum (I-XTSM) strategy, to improve investment performance. Using data on 25 investment portfolios and common commodities for the period from January 1990 to April 2021, we find that the I-XTSM strategy increases...

Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless", and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than...

The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial...

Purpose - Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure to Chinese economic policy uncertainty at the individual stock level in large Asian markets....