This paper studies determinants and effects of capital controls using a panel of 61 developed and developing countries. The results suggest that capital account restrictions are more likely to be in place in countries with low income, a large share of government, and where the central bank is...

This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments,...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the monetary authority's borrowing policies in resolving exchange rate crises. It shows why obtaining loans or lines of credit in foreign currency may avoid, at least temporarily, the devaluation of a fixed exchange rate, and discusses the problem of...

Against the background of the changing international economic environment, this pamphlet examines the general rationale for IMF financial support and the relationship between such support and IMF surveillance in carrying out the IMF's responsibility to seek to avoid and help to correct...

Against the background of the changing international economic environment, this pamphlet examines the general rationale for IMF financial support and the relationship between such support and IMF surveillance in carrying out the IMF's responsibility to seek to avoid and help to correct...

The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of a global saving/investment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a...

This paper examines credibility and reputational factors in explaining the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. After reviewing events leading to the crisis, a model emphasizing the inflation-competitiveness trade-off is presented to explain the formation of devaluation expectations....

The effects of population aging are examined with the aid of a theoretical model and simulations of MULTIMOD. An older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and...

Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also...

Evaluations of European monetary integration using model simulations have given conflicting results, and the paper attempts to elucidate the reasons for the differences. Several features stand out: how to model realignments; how monetary policy is set for individual countries or for Europe; and...