This study tests for the presence of periodically, partially collapsing speculative bubbles in the sector indices of the S&P 500 using a regime-switching approach. We also employ an augmented model that includes trading volume as a technical indicator to improve the ability of the model to time...

Following early failures, more recent empirical evidence has suggested that timing entries to and exits from equity markets may be feasible. A number of approaches to this most basic form of dynamic asset allocation are available, but which works best? This study investigates the relative...

In this paper we test for the presence of periodically partially collapsing, positive and negative speculative bubbles in the Samp;P 500 Composite Index for the period 1888-2003. We extend existing regime - Switching models of speculative behavior by including abnormal volume as an indicator of...

This study tests for the presence of periodically, partially collapsing speculative bubbles in the sector indices of the Samp;P 500 using a regime-switching approach. We also employ an augmented model that includes trading volume as a technical indicator to improve the ability of the model to...

This paper illustrates how qualitative analysis can be incorporated into quantitative risk measurement in order to construct an expected distribution of hedge fund returns that explicitly allows for market, residual and tail risk. We show how the combination of statistical criteria with...

This paper is set to investigate the existence of spillover effects for the trading process of correlated financial instruments. While the main literature in price impact models has focused mainly on multivariate processes for a unique asset, we argue that transitory spillover effects in such...

The focus of this paper is on the study of the drivers of a cross market arbitrage profit. Many papers have investigated the risk of trading arbitrage opportunities and the empirical existence of these events at the high frequency level for different markets. But none of the previous work has...

We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993-2011 to empirically analyze the behaviour of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we explore the relationship between...

There is much evidence in the literature that the volatilities of equity returns show evidence of asymmetric responses to good and bad news. At the same time, there is evidence that the unconditional distribution of stock returns is asymmetric as well. This paper examines the effects of...

Many popular techniques for determining a securities firm's value-at-risk are based upon the calculation of the historical volatility of returns to the assets that comprise the portfolio and of the correlations between them. One such approach is the JP Morgan RiskMetrics methodology using...