Conditional returns distributions generated by a GARCH process, which are important for many problems in market risk assessment and portfolio optimization, are typically generated via simulation. This paper extends previous research on analytic moments of GARCH returns distributions in several...

It is widely accepted that some of the most accurate predictions of aggregated asset returns are based on an appropriately specified GARCH process. As the forecast horizon is greater than the frequency of the GARCH model, such predictions either require time-consuming simulations or they can be...

It is widely accepted that some of the most accurate predictions of aggregated asset returns are based on an appropriately specified GARCH process. As the forecast horizon is greater than the frequency of the GARCH model, such predictions either require time-consuming simulations or they can be...

GARCH processes constitute the major area of time series variance analysis, hence the limit of these processes is of considerable interest for continuous time volatility modelling. The continuous time limit of the GARCH(1,1) model is fundamental for limits of other GARCH processes, yet it has...

Normal mixture GARCH models offer a more intuitive and tractable framework for risk analysis and option pricing than student's t-GARCH models. We present a general, symmetric parameterisation for normal mixture GARCH(1,1) models, with analytic derivatives for the maximum likelihood estimation of...

Some recent specifications for GARCH error processes explicitly assume a conditional variance that is generated by a mixture of normal components, albeit with some parameter restrictions. This paper analyses the general normal mixture GARCH(1,1) model which can capture time-variation in both...

Conditional returns distributions generated by a GARCH process, which are important for many problems in market risk assessment and portfolio optimization, are typically generated via simulation. This paper extends previous research on analytic moments of GARCH returns distributions in several...

Credit spreads can be derived from the prices of securities traded in different markets. In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bonds, credit default swaps, equities and equity options. Using a vector error correction model (VECM) of...