Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, I show that shocks to a common international stochastic trend explain on average about 10% of the variability of output in several small developed economies. These shocks explain roughly twice as much of the volatility of...

This paper investigates the extent to which technology and uncertainty contribute to fluctuations in real exchange rates. Using a structural VAR and bilateral exchange rates, the author finds that neutral technology shocks are important contributors to the dynamics of real exchange rates....

Inference about common international stochastic trends and interest rates is gained using a small open economy model, data from seven developed countries, and Bayesian methods. Shocks to these common factors explain up to 17 percent of the variability of output in several economies....

and a notable change in the current account of the economy.

policy rules during Volckers tenure as Chairman of the Fed. At the same time, we document how good volatility shocks played an important role in the great performance of the economy during the 1990s.

We study the impact that the liquidity crunch in 2008-2009 had on the U.S. economy's growth trend. To this end, we propose a model featuring endogenous growth ¨¢ la Romer and a liquidity friction ¨¢ la Kiyotaki-Moore. A key finding in our study is that liquidity declined around the demise of...

We study the impact that the liquidity crunch in 2008-2009 had on the U.S. economy’s growth trend. To this end, we propose a model featuring endogenous growth á la Romer and a liquidity friction á la Kiyotaki-Moore. A key finding in our study is that liquidity declined around the demise of...

Many news reports and economic experts talk about uncertainty. But what does the word mean in an economic context? Specifically, what do economists have in mind when they talk about it? In this article, Pablo Guerron-Quintana discusses the concepts of risk and uncertainty, what the difference is...