Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports,...

macro models.

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports,...

Engel and West (EW, 2005) argue that as the discount factor gets closer to one, present-value asset pricing models place greater weight on future fundamentals. Consequently, current fundamentals have very weak forecasting power and exchange rates appear to follow approximately a random walk. We...

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports,...

The authors examine the effects of a firm’s and its competitors’ online reviews on its demand within the hotel industry. The authors leverage a unique dataset of actual bookings from properties of a major hotel chain in six different markets in the United States, supplemented with online...

This paper provides empirical evidence that emerging market economies adjust capital flow management in response to U.S. monetary policy shocks. Using these shocks as exogenous instruments, we find that such adjustments cause changes to portfolio capital flows — in particular, a one standard...

This paper provides empirical evidence that emerging market economies adjust capital flow management in response to U.S. monetary policy shocks. Using these shocks as exogenous instruments, we find that such adjustments cause changes to portfolio capital flows — in particular, a one standard...

This paper provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of US business cycles. In particular, we begin by using sign-restriction based identification schemes to isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism and we document the extent to which such...