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See http://hal.inria.fr/inria-00479824/en/ for a slightly more elaborate version.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008833330
An elementary arbitrage principle and the existence of trends in financial time series, which is based on a theorem … problems related to violent behaviors of the underlying, like the existence of jumps, become then quite straightforward by … incorporating them into the trends. Several convincing computer experiments are reported. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551681
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Causation between time series is a most important topic in econometrics, financial engineering, biological and psychological sciences, and many other fields. A new setting is introduced for examining this rather abstract concept. The corresponding calculations, which are much easier than those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010899129
management. This setting, which is based on the existence of trends for financial time series via nonstandard analysis (Fliess M …., Join C.: A mathematical proof of the existence of trends in financial time series, Proc. Int. Conf. Systems Theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008792703
Abrupt changes in the unconditional variance of returns have been recently revealed in many empirical studies. In this paper, we show that traditional KPSS-based tests have a low power against nonstationarities stemming from changes in the unconditional variance. More precisely, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008622067
Abrupt changes in the unconditional variance of returns have been recently revealed in many empirical studies. In this paper, we show that traditional KPSS-based tests have a low power against nonstationarities stemming from changes in the unconditional variance. More precisely, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010603693
This paper shows some failures of the KPSS test when the source of the nonstationarity is explained by an unconditional volatility shift. We provide the asymptotic moments of the statistic under general case of shifts in the unconditional variance. We find that these moments remain unchanged...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011278646
Abrupt changes are a prevalent feature of financial data sets, such as prices of financial assets, returns of stocks, exchange rates, etc. An early warning system (EWS) can detect existing changes and predict possible future changes before they occur. Two important statistical models for change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015065127
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