Many commodity markets contain a strong seasonal component not only at the price level, but also in volatility. In this paper, the importance of seasonal behavior in the volatility for the pricing of commodity options is analyzed. We propose a seasonally varying long-run mean variance process...

Feedback trading strategies have gained much popularity among researchers in the last decadesand are used to illustrate how new information based on returns is reflected in the markets. This paper extends previous studies by decomposing the overall return premium and introducing the global...

Predictions of asset returns and volatilities are heavily discussed and analyzed in the finance research literature. In this paper, we compare linear and nonlinear predictions for stock- and bond index returns and their covariance matrix. We show in-sample and out-of-sample prediction accuracy...