Okun’s law can be a useful guide for monetary policy, but only if the natural rate of unemployment is properly measured.>

If oil prices continue to rise and the RMB continues to appreciate, the U.S. inflation rate may increase at a faster pace in the near future. And this would have an unwelcome impact on consumers’ wallets.

Recent immigration policies have created massive uncertainty for international students to obtain F-1 visas. Yet, before the COVID-19 pandemic, student visa applicants already faced an approximately 27 percent refusal rate that varies by time and region. Using data on the universe of SAT takers...

We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior. We combine two rich data sources: 1) administrative employer-employee matched data from the US Census Bureau; and 2) firmlevel information on the first...

Labor mismatch, also known as structural imbalance, can be defined as a poor match between the characteristics of unemployed workers and those required for vacant jobs. In the wake of the jobless recovery from the Great Recession, economists have sought to explain the coexistence of a high...

The famous"Dewey Defeats Truman" headline illustrates the importance of timely and accurate data. Agencies that compute economic indicators for the $14 trillion U.S. economy face a tough challenge: providing up-to-the minute results and ensuring the reliability of the data. This month's Page One...

District Overview

Today's high unemployment rate is often linked to a structural imbalance—a mismatch between the skills and location required to fill vacant jobs and the skills and geographical preferences of the unemployed. But the evidence downplays the role of this mismatch.