Rising home prices and low interest rates have fueled the recent surge in mortgage borrowing and enabled consumers to spend at high rates relative to their income. Low interest rates have outerbalanced. The growth in debt and acted to dampen the growth in household debt-service burdens. As past...

This public policy brief analyzes the current economic climate in light of recent data and commentary. The authors’ approach rests upon a Keynesian framework in which departures from full employment can persist even in the long run. Moreover, monetary policy matters in our view, but fiscal...

In this paper, the authors discuss Minsky's analysis of the evolution of one variety of capitalism-financial capitalism-which developed at the end of the nineteenth century and was the dominant form of capitalism in the developed countries after World War II. Minsky's approach, like those of...

The first part of this paper is an overview of projections of Social Security's future and an explanation of why the projections have led many to believe there is a looming financial crisis. We argue that any problems to be faced are far down the road and not severe enough to justify the use of...

The aging of the U.S. population will be a critical public policy issue in the years ahead. This paper surveys the recent literature on the economics of aging, with a special emphasis on government spending on the aged. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the proportion of the elderly in the...

Though recent market activity and housing reports give some warrant for optimism, United States economic growth was only 2.2 percent in the third quarter, and the unemployment rate is still very high. In this new Strategic Analysis, we project that high unemployment will continue to be a problem...

Although the U.S. unemployment rate in 1998 was at its lowest level since the late 1960s, the nation's employment problem is still far from solved. Although many economists assume that unemployment tends toward a natural rate below which it cannot go without creating inflation, this paper asks...

In recent years, the US public debt has grown rapidly, with last fiscal year's deficit reaching nearly $1.3 trillion. Meanwhile, many of the euro nations with large amounts of public debt have come close to bankruptcy and loss of capital market access. The same may soon be true of many US states...