We study the impact of team decision making on market behavior and its consequences for subsequent individual performance in the Wason selection task, the single-most studied reasoning task. We reformulated the task in terms of assets in a market context. Teams of traders learn the task's...

We study the impact of team decision making on market behavior and its consequences for subsequent individual performance in the Wason selection task, the single-most studied reasoning task. We reformulated the task in terms of assets in a market context. Teams of traders learn the task's...

We apply the principles of the ``Wisdom of Crowds (WoC)'' to improve the calibration of interval estimates. Previous research has documented the significant impact of the WoC on the accuracy of point estimates but only a few studies have examined its effectiveness in aggregating interval...

Ellsberg?s famous paradox [1961] focused attention on the importance of the precision of the probabilities underlying risky choice. Following his seminal work numerous studies have demonstrated that people are generally averse to imprecisely specified (vague) probabilities. In many important...

We conducted an experimental study of price competition in a duopolistic market. The market was operationalized as a repeated game between two “teams” with one, two, or three players in each team. Each player simultaneously demanded a price, and the team whose total asking price was smaller...

In a series of experiments, Bar-Hillel and Budescu (1995) failed to find a desirability bias in probability estimation. The World Cup soccer tournament (of 2002 and 2006) provided an opportunity to revisit the phenomenon, in a context where wishful thinking and desirability bias are notoriously...

The Recognition Heuristic (Gigerenzer \& Goldstein, 1996; Goldstein \& Gigerenzer, 2002) makes the counter-intuitive prediction that a decision maker utilizing less information may do as well as, or outperform, an idealized decision maker utilizing more information. We lay a theoretical foundation...

We study the impact of team decision making on market behavior and its consequences for subsequent individual performance in the Wason selection task, the single-most studied reasoning task. We reformulated the task in terms of "assets" in a market context. Teams of traders learn the task’s...

The social dilemma paradigm traditionally addresses two types of collective action problems: give-some and take-some resource management dilemmas. We highlight several limitations of this paradigm in addressing more complicated resource management problems where actors both give and/or take...

Often research in judgment and decision making requires comparison of multiple competing models. Researchers invoke global measures such as the rate of correct predictions or the sum of squared (or absolute) deviations of the various models as part of this evaluation process. Reliance on such...