The first essay studies the effects of exogenous and endogenous shocks on output sustainability in Central Eastern Europe and Russia during the 2000s. It expands traditional vector autoregressive model to a multi-country model that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and...

In the literature, many statistical models have been used to investigate the existence of a deterministic time trend, changing persistence and nonlinearity in macroeconomic and financial data. Good understanding of these properties in a univariate time series model is crucial when making...

This paper compares how effective different voting algorithms are for the decisions taken by monetary policy councils. A voting activity index is proposed and computed as the ratio of the number of all possible decisions to the total number of different combinations of decisions available to a...

Empirical evaluation of macroeconomic uncertainties and their use for probabilistic forecasting are investigated. A new weighted skew normal distribution which parameters are interpretable in relation to monetary policy outcomes and actions is proposed. This distribution is fitted to recursively...

The paper analyses inflationary real effects in situation where there are frequent episodes of high inflation. It is conjectured with the increase in high inflation, and when differences between the expected and output-neutral inflation become large, output stimulation through inflationary...

This paper examines the relationship between the ‘exclusion’ type core inflation measures and the stability price index. Empirical results for Malaysia and Pakistan suggests that, if targeting core inflation index is to stabilize output, weights of the export-oriented sectors (energy for...

The paper aims at assessing the forecast risk and the maximum admissible forecast horizon for the non-systematic component of inflation modeled autoregressively, where a distortion is caused by a simple first-order bilinear process. The concept of the guaranteed upper risk of forecasting and the...

The paper focuses on the decomposition of inflation persistence into the linear and nonlinear components. The hypothesis is that the nonlinear component of inflation persistence results from a technological shock and might positively contribute to economic growth. The microfoundations are...