The Japanese government has amassed a huge amount of gross public debts over the past several decades. However, previous empirical works dealing with vector auto-regression (VAR) have not considered the effect of debt on fiscal policy and the macro economy. In this paper, we incorporate debt...

This paper empirically investigates the changing dynamics of fiscal policy shocks to the macroeconomy in Japan. By estimating a Markov-switching vector-autoregressive (VAR) model, regime switches in both automatic fiscal responses to output and discretionary fiscal shocks are investigated. The...

Using 48 country data for the period 1800-2010, we empirically investigate the effect of hyperinflations on the public debt, the primary surplus, and the real economy. Estimating a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) model, we find that (i) hyperinflations permanently reduce public debt-to-GDP...

This paper measures economic uncertainty induced by the COVID-19 using a newspaper-based approach in Japan and examines its economic impact in the VAR model. We specify two types of uncertainty indices and structural shocks: epidemiological and policy-related uncertainties. The constructed...

Fiscal announcements may transfer information about the government’s view of the macroeconomic outlook to the private sector, diminishing the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. We construct a novel dataset that combines daily data on Japanese stock prices with narrative...

The most prominent characteristic of the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate in the post-Plaza Accord era is its near random-walk behavior sharing a common stochastic trend with the monetary base differential, which is augmented by the excess reserves, between Japan and the United...