We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference...

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has been quite aggressive recently in promoting the international use of its currency, the renminbi. Historical experience suggests that an active offshore market is essential for a global currency. Indeed, anecdotal evidence affirms the role of offshore...

We construct an empirical model for daily highs and daily lows of US stock indexes based on the intuition that highs and lows do not drift apart over time. Our empirical results show that daily highs and lows of three main US stock price indexes are cointegrated. Data on openings, closings, and...

Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies,...

Assessing exchange rate misalignment is not an easy task. With reference to the debate on the value of China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), this article highlights a few challenges in properly assessing the extent of currency misalignment. The results derived from the fundamental equilibrium...

Previous findings of long-run purchasing power parity come mainly from data for industrial countries, raising the issue of whether the results suffer sample-selection bias and exaggerate the general relevance of parity reversion. This study uncovers substantial cross-country heterogeneity in the...