The business cycle properties of occupational employment have not yet been extensively explored because of inconsistencies in the aggregate employment series by occupation. Using consistent aggregate hours data constructed through the method of “conversion factors,” which was developed by...

Based on observations that high-wage industries in 1980 experienced more evident job polarization between 1980 and 2009, we hypothesize that the persistent structure of interindustry wage differentials leads to heterogeneity in job polarization across industries; as the relative price of ICT...

Hours volatility has changed non-monotonically across skill groups since the mid-1980s. This study researches the implications of such changes on the welfare costs of business cycles. Using a partial equilibrium model in which hours fluctuations are the only source of uncertainty, we find that...

We study forecast dispersion in a finite-player forecasting game modeled as an aggregate game with payoff externalities and dispersed information. In the game, each agent cares about being accurate as well as about the distance of his forecast from the average forecast; and with a finite number...

Although much is known about labor market dynamics under technology shocks in advanced economies, this is not true for developing economies. This study bridges this gap in the literature by establishing new stylized facts in labor market dynamics. First, the response of hours worked (and...

Countercyclical dispersion of firm outcomes (micro dispersion) is commonly used as a proxy for micro uncertainty. In this paper, we characterize conditions under which micro dispersion and micro uncertainty co-move positively in the context of a large Cournot economy with dispersed information...

Financial analysts may have strategic incentives to herd or to anti-herd when issuing forecasts of firms' earnings. This paper develops and implements a new test to examine whether such incentives exist and to identify the form of strategic behavior. We use the equilibrium property of the...