Corruption is a widespread phenomenon, but relatively little is confidently known about its macroeconomic consequences. This paper explicitly models the transmission channels through which corruption indirectly affects growth. Results suggest that corruption hinders growth through its adverse...

This paper characterizes UK public spending pressures over a ten-year horizon and their implications for public deficits and debt levels. The analysis is based on a ‘bottom-up’ scenario for total public expenditure, that includes, inter alia, implementation of the NHS Long-Term Workforce...

This note provides guidance on how to calibrate fiscal rules; that is, how to determine the thresholds (ceiling, floor, or target) for specific fiscal aggregates constrained by rules. The note focuses, more specifically, on the calibration of the debt, balance, and expenditure rules.

This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal decentralisation, focusing in particular on the impact of the level of income on the level of fiscal decentralisation. Various measures of fiscal decentralisation, several of them novel in this context, are employed in a cross-country...

This paper estimates a small structural model of the Australian economy, designed principally for forecasting the key macroeconomic variables of output growth, underlying inflation and the cash rate. In contrast to models with purely statistical foundations, which are often used for forecasting,...

This paper analyses the impact of fiscal decentralisation on the Australian economy at both the aggregate and state levels. Attention is given not only to economic growth but also to a number of important macroeconomic variables which may influence growth. The results suggest that there is no...

This article re-examines the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth by employing Bayesian model averaging (BMA). BMA enables the consideration of a range of measures of fiscal decentralisation and allows the incorporation of model uncertainty into the empirical...

This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal decentralisation, focusing in particular on the impact of the level of income on the level of fiscal decentralisation. Various measures of fiscal decentralisation, several of them novel in this context, are employed in a cross-country...

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...