potential. Applications include international conflict, litigation, and elections. Even though only a peaceful agreement avoids … a loss of resources, if this loss is small enough, then any contract must assign a positive probability of conflict. We … show how the likelihood of conflict outbreak depends on the distribution of power between the agents and their information …

social outcomes in Somalia and is relevant for most fragile and conflict-affected countries. The qualitative parts describing … reduce conflict likelihood. This paper shows that the security imperative prevails in such countries and that tax bargaining …