We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: Moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, we find that moment matching, when accompanied by a check to ensure the absence of arbitrage...

Ledermann et al. (2011) propose random orthogonal matrix (ROM) simulation for generating multivariate samples matching means and covariances exactly. Its computational efficiency compared to standard Monte Carlo methods makes it an interesting alternative. In this paper we enhance this method's...

We consider optimal consumption and (strategic) asset allocation of an investor with uncertain lifetime. The problem is solved using a multi-stage stochastic linear programming (SLP) model to be able to generalize the closed-form solution obtained by Richard (1975). We account for aspects of the...

Since its announcement made on Sept. 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level. We use a compound option pricing approach to...

We compare risk-neutral densities from equity index options across several markets during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. These densities reflect market expectations regarding its economic impact. The markets reacted abruptly and simultaneously initially, but with a marked time lag...

We combine risk-neutral densities from equity index options with realized index returns to estimate the market's risk aversion. Starting from a power utility framework with constant risk aversion, we extend it by more flexible stochastic discount factors. We allow for time-varying risk aversion...

We extract implied price densities from wheat derivative prices during the first seven months of the Ukrainian war. Differences between short- and longterm densities indicate that market expectations about the duration of the conflict changed over time. Under simplifying assumptions, we...

After the 2020 U.S. presidential election, counting votes and calling states took more time than usual, particularly in battleground states. In the days following the election, winning probabilities changed frequently as new results were tabulated. Based on the sensitivity of stocks to changes...

Many numerical optimization methods use scenario trees as a discrete approximation for the true (multi-dimensional) probability distributions of the problem's random variables. Realistic specifications in asset-liability management (ALM) models can lead to tree sizes that quickly become...

We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial optimization. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...