This paper analyzes sophisticated dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It characterizes Consistent Planning via axioms on preferences over decision trees. Furthermore, it shows how to elicit conditional preferences from prior preferences. The key axiom is a weakening of...

This paper proposes a model of decision under ambiguity deemed vector expected utility, or VEU. In this model, an uncertain prospect, or Savage act, is assessed according to (a) a baseline expected-utility evaluation, and (b) an adjustment that reflects the individual’s perception of ambiguity...

This paper analyzes dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It demonstrates that unambiguous behavioral predictions can be obtained, even in the face of dynamic inconsistency, by taking the individual's preferences over decision trees, rather than acts, as primitive. In...

We propose an overlapping-generation model wherein researchers belong to two groups, M or F , and established researchers evaluate new researchers. Group imbalance obtains even with group-neutral evaluations and identical productivity distributions. Evaluators’ self-image bias and mild...

We propose a simple theoretical model of supervised learning that is potentially useful to interpret a number of empirical phenomena. The model captures a basic trade-off between sheltering the child from the consequences of his mistakes, and allowing him to learn from experience. We...

We propose a simple theoretical model of supervised learning that is potentially useful to interpret a number of empirical phenomena. The model captures a basic tradeoff between sheltering the child from the consequences of his mistakes, and allowing him to learn from experience. We characterize...

We discuss a class of markets for durable goods where efficiency (or approximate efficiency) is obtained despite the presence of information asymmetries. In the model, the number of times a good has changed hands (the vintage of the good) is an accurate signal of its quality, each consumer...

This paper proposes a model of decision under ambiguity deemed lt;igt;vector expected utilitylt;/igt;, or VEU. In this model, an uncertain prospect, or Savage act, is assessed according to (a) a lt;igt;baseline expected-utility evaluationlt;/igt;, and (b) an lt;igt;adjustmentlt;/igt; that...