This study focuses on the question whether nonlinear transformation of lagged time series values and residuals are able to systematically improve the average forecasting performance of simple Autoregressive models. Furthermore it investigates the potential superior forecasting results of a...

This study explores the dynamics of monthly metal prices during the past 100 years. On the basis of a unique data set, co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends are analyzed by means of common statistical methods and the results are compared to the findings in the literature. Due to its...

Although many macroeconomic time series are assumed to follow nonlinear processes, nonlinear models often do not provide better predictions than their linear counterparts. Furthermore, such models easily become very complex and difficult to estimate. The aim of this study is to investigate...

This paper presents a new facet of the regional forecasts of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). For the development in 2022, we report results at the level of administrative district types of the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR)....

This paper compares public health care with private health insurance in an overlapping generations endogenous growth model. It is shown that economic growth is higher when there is a private health insurance.