Investor protection is associated with greater investment-sensitivity to q and lower investment-sensitivity to cash flow. Finance plays a role in causing these effects; in countries with strong investor protection external finance increases more strongly with q, and declines more strongly with...

The recent financial crisis highlights the importance of understanding how financial market conditions impact the real economy. We ask whether access to external finance typically varies over time, and if so what the effects are on investment and employment. Consistent with time-varying external...

Previous studies find that U.S. firms make large equity issues when stock prices are high for the purpose of building precautionary cash savings. We find these effects internationally, but only in countries where it is less costly to issue equity. In countries where external finance is costlier,...

We study the out-of-sample and post-publication return-predictability of 97 variables that academic studies show to predict cross-sectional stock returns. Portfolio returns are 26% lower out-of-sample and 58% lower post-publication. The out-of-sample decline is an upper bound estimate of data...

Analysts' price targets and recommendations contradict stock return anomaly variables. Using an index based on 125 anomalies, we find that analysts' annual stock return forecasts are 11% higher for anomaly-shorts than for anomaly-longs. Anomaly-shorts' return forecasts are excessively...

Firm-level variables that predict cross-sectional stock returns, such as price-to-earnings and short interest, are often averaged and used to predict the time series of market returns. We extend this literature and limit the data-snooping bias by using a large population of the literature's...

Firms increasingly issue shares for the purpose of cash savings. During the 1970s, $1.00 of issuance resulted in $0.23 of cash savings; over the most recent decade $1.00 of issuance resulted in $0.60 of cash savings. This increase is caused by increasing precautionary motives. Proxies for...

Consistent with a costly arbitrage equilibrium in which arbitrage costs insulate mispricing, this study finds that mutual fund managers have stock-picking ability for stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility but not for stocks with low idiosyncratic volatility. These findings suggest that fund...

Share issuance predicts cross-sectional returns in a non-U.S. sample of stocks from 41 different countries. Issuance predictability has greater statistical significance than either size, or momentum, and is similar to book-to-market. As in the U.S., the international issuance effect is robust...