Marchiori, Davide; Guida, Sibilla Di; Erev, Ido - Dipartimento di Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia - 2013
Previous research documents two pairs of inconsistent reactions to rare events: 1) Studies of probability judgment reveal conservatism which implies overestimation of rare events, and overconfidence which implies underestimation of rare events. 2) Studies of choice behavior reveal overweighting...