We compare the predictive ability and economic value of implied, realized and GARCH volatility models for 13 equity indices from 10 countries. Model ranking is similar across countries, but varies with the forecast horizon. At the daily horizon, the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model offers the...

We compare the performance of popular covariance forecasting models in the context of a portfolio of major European equity indices. We find that models based on high-frequency data offer a clear advantage in terms of statistical accuracy. They also yield more theoretically consistent predictions...

Investor sentiment and attention are often linked to the same non-economic events making it difficult to understand why and how asset prices are affected. We disentangle these two potential drivers of investment behaviour by analysing a new dataset of medals for major participating countries and...

We investigate the economic factors that drive electricity risk premia in the European emissions constrained economy. Our analysis is undertaken for monthly baseload electricity futures for delivery in the Nordic, French and British power markets. We find that electricity risk premia are...

The estimation of the inverse covariance matrix plays a crucial role in optimal portfolio choice. We propose a new estimation framework that focuses on enhancing portfolio performance. The framework applies the statistical methodology of shrinkage directly to the inverse covariance matrix using...

This paper studies the three main markets for emission allowances within the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS): Powernext, Nord Pool and European Climate Exchange (ECX). The analysis suggests that the prohibition of banking of emission allowances between distinct phases of the EU...

This paper investigates the empirical association between stock market volatility and investor mood-proxies related to the weather (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation) and the environment (nighttime length). Overall, our results suggest that cloudiness and length of nighttime are...

Motivated by recent evidence on the possibility of jumps in carbon dioxide emission levels and abrupt increases in pollutant-related socio-economic costs, this paper uses a real options approach to examine their impact with respect to the optimal timing of environmental policies and the optimal...

The links between emission and energy markets are of great interest to practitioners, academics and policy makers. In this paper, it is conjectured that a positive relationship exists between emission allowance spot returns and electricity risk premia within the European Union Emissions Trading...

This paper explores the finite sample properties of the GARCH option pricing model proposed by Heston and Nandi (2000). Simulation results show that the maximum likelihood estimators of the GARCH process may contain substantial estimation biases, even when samples as large as 3,000 observations...