This study empirically examines whether spin and tone affect contemporaneous stock returns and volatility. We examine spin and tone of earnings reports from two sources: companies' earnings press releases and the financial news coverage of those releases. Our definition of spin is based on...

This study empirically examines whether spin in earnings information in the financial press or in company press releases can alter investor behaviour and affect stock returns. Our sample includes 72 companies from the Samp;P 100 over the sample period 2000:Q1 to 2005:Q1. Using intraday stock...

This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. The empirical results suggest that the Beige Book's tone changes in response to...

We develop a method for constructing prediction intervals for a nonstationary variable, such as GDP. The method uses a factor augmented regression [FAR] model. The predictors in the model includes a small number of factors generated to extract most of the information in a set of panel data on a...

This paper investigates stock-bond portfolios’ tail risks such as value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES), and the way in which these measures have been affected by the global financial crisis. The semiparametric t-copula is found to be adequate for modelling stock-bond joint...

This article examines the relationship between the spot and futures prices of WTI crude oil using a sample of daily data. Linear causality testing reveals that futures prices lead spot prices, but nonlinear causality testing reveals a bidirectional effect. This result suggests that both spot and...

This paper establishes vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis by efficiently identifying and simultaneously estimating the model parameters using full information maximum likelihood. The monetary literature is largely dominated by vector...

This paper investigates whether or not there are significant changes in the dependence between the Thai equity market and six Asian markets - namely, Singaporean, Malaysian, Hong Kong, Korean, Indonesian and Taiwanese markets - due to 1997-July financial crisis. If so, this may be an indication...

Copulas offer a convenient way of modelling multivariate observations and capturing the intrinsic dependence between the components of a multivariate random variable. A semiparametric method for estimating the dependence parameters of copulas was proposed by Genest, Ghoudi and Rivest (1995), in...

This paper models the dynamics of the adjustment process of Indonesian purchasing power parity (PPP) relative to US, Japan and Singapore by employing a nonlinear framework, which is recently shown to be appropriate in the presence of transaction costs associated with international trade. Using...