In this paper we propose a model that generates an expansion in response to good news about future total factor productivity (TFP) or investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that exhibit...

Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. In either case it is difficult to find observable fundamentals that are correlated with price movements. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals...

Currencies that are at a forward premium tend to depreciate. This `forward premium-depreciation anomaly' represents an egregious deviation from uncovered interest parity. We document the returns to currency speculation strategies that exploit this anomaly. The first strategy, known as the carry...

Recent empirical work suggests that small price changes are relatively common. This evidence has been used to criticize classic menu-cost models. In this paper, we use scanner data from a national supermarket chain and micro data from the Consumer Price Index to reassess the importance of small...

"We assess the importance of nominal rigidities using a new weekly scanner data set from a major U.S. retailer, that contains information on prices, quantities, and costs for over 1,000 stores. We find that nominal rigidities are important but do not take the form of sticky prices. Instead,...

We assess the importance of nominal rigidities using a new weekly scanner data set. We find that nominal rigidities are important but do not take the form of sticky prices. Instead, they take the form of inertia in reference prices and costs, defined as the most common prices and costs within a...

We assess the importance of nominal rigidities using a new weekly scanner data set. We find that nominal rigidities are important but do not take the form of sticky prices. Instead, they take the form of inertia in reference prices and costs, defined as the most common prices and costs within a...

We study a model in which the effects of taxation on growth are highly non-linear. Marginal increases in tax rates have a small growth impact when tax rates are low or moderate. When tax rates are high, further tax hikes have a large, negative impact on growth performance. We argue that this...

We propose a model consistent with two observations. First, the tax rates adopted by different countries are generally uncorrelated with their growth performance. Second, countries that drastically reduce private incentives to invest, severely hurt their growth performance. In our model, the...