In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among...

In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among...

We investigate whether long-term co-movements among the prices of precious metals commodity futures contracts can be observed. The past literature on agricultural commodity futures prices obtains the mixed results. We find that there is no long-term interdependence among the prices of the four...

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is one of the key variables to which economists pay considerable attention for assessing US economic activities, particularly, business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Although the PMI has been used to assess the US economy, there is hardly any...

We investigate the directional accuracy of disaggregated production manager forecasts by using a new market-timing test. We present evidence that forecasts for eleven individual industries and the aggregate manufacturing sector are useful predictors of both increases/decreases and...

We investigate the directional accuracy of GDP forecasts by corporate executives. Extending the literature to business leader's forecasts, our findings show positive evidence for the usefulness of long-term forecasts whereas past literature casts doubt on their usefulness. However, examination...

Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether...

This study assesses World Bank (WB) forecasts for growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) and its subcomponents during the global financial crisis of 2008 and the consequent Great Recession in 2009. Several have examined macroeconomic forecasts for advanced economies conducted by...

In this study, the performance and rationality of the gross domestic product growth forecasts by the World Bank (WB) for six regional aggregates and 130 individual countries between 1999 and 2019 are assessed. A large body of literature examines macroeconomic forecasts for advanced economies by...