We develop a methodology for using intra-annual data to forecast annual budget deficits. Our approach aims at improving the accuracy of the deficit forecasts, a relevant issue to policy makers in the Eurozone and at proposing a replicable methodology using at best public quantitative information...

In this paper we feature state-of-the-art econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for univariate linear time series, namely ARIMA-GARCH models. We present a unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes and we explain in detail, although...

We present a unified and up-to-date overview of temporal aggregation techniques for univariate and multivariate time series models explaining in detail how these techniques are employed. Some empirical applications illustrate the main issues.

We present a unified and up-to-date overview of temporal aggregation techniques for univariate and multivariate time series models explaining in detail, although intuitively, the technical machinery behind the results. Some empirical applications illustrate the main issues

This paper presents and evaluates a new approach, temporal aggregation of models, to forecast annual budget deficits using montly information. Using French monthly data on central government revenues and expenditures, the method we propose consists of: 1) estimating monthly ARIMA models for all...

We present a unified and up-to-date overview of temporal aggregation techniques for univariate and multivariate time series models explaining in detail how these techniques are employed. Some empirical applications illustrate the main issues

Fiscal sustainability is a central topic for most of the transition economies of Eastern Europe. This paper focuses on a particular country: Poland. The main purpose is to investigate, empirically, whether the post-transition fiscal policy is consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint,...