ECONOMY REMAINS WEAK Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output fell by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in October, following on from a similar decline in the three months ending in September. The buoyancy of industrial production in September is good news, but a rise between May...

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output fell by 1.5% in the three months ending in April, after the decline of 1.9% in the first calendar quarter of this year. The estimates for April themselves point to output stopping falling. Monthly data are erratic so it would be wrong to make too...

We project that the output of the economy in the three months ending in August was 0.8% higher than in the previous three months. GDP, therefore, continues to grow above trend. It is likely that there will be a need for further interest rate rises.� Our track record in producing early...

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of indicators that were constructed at the time. We proceed to illustrate how the new data can contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the 1930s and have also used the series to draw...

FASTER GROWTH IN THREE MONTHS TO JANUARY Embargo until 15.00 hours on 10th February 2010 Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in January, following on from a growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in December. The improvement...

This papers identifies the information content at the firm-level of qualitative business survey data by first examining the consistency between these data and the quantitative data provided by the same respondents to the UK's ONS in official surveys. Since the qualitative data are published...

Generational accounts show the net discounted life-time contribution, positive or negative, that people, as a function of their age, are expected to make to the Exchequer. Receipts include both welfare benefits and public consumption (allocated by age as far as possible) while payments are...

Mortality rates computed from data reported in the British Household Panel Survey are lower than those computed from registration of deaths; the main source of this error is likely to be a failure to distinguish non-response due to unreported death from other forms of non-response. Here we model...

We project that the output of the economy in the three months ending in May was 0.8% higher than in the previous three months. Rounding means that the underlying increase in the growth rate compared with the first quarter data is less than 0.1 percentage point and the underlying message is...

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output fell by 1.5% in the first quarter of this year, as compared to the 1.6% reported for the last quarter of 2008. This does not indicate recessionary pressures are easing but is simply a very small difference accentuated by rounding. As the graph...