In order to meet the needs of wind speed prediction in wind farms, we consider the influence of random atmospheric disturbances on wind variations. Considering a simplified fluid convection mode, a Lorenz system can be employed as an atmospheric disturbance model. Here Lorenz disturbance is...

This paper proposes two new panel unit root tests based on Zaykin et al. (2002)’s truncated product method. The first one assumes constant correlation between p-values and the second one uses sieve bootstrap to allow for general forms of cross-section dependence in the panel units. Monte Carlo...

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between the dual objectives, we develop a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time and propose a sequential stopping time as a...

This paper proposes three new panel unit root tests based on Zaykin et al. (2002)’s truncated product method. The first one assumes constant correlation between p-values and the latter two use sieve bootstrap that allows for general forms of cross-section dependence in the panel units. Monte...

To measure disagreement among respondents in qualitative survey data, we propose new methods applicable to both univariate and multivariate comparisons. Based on prior work, our first measure quantifies the level of disagreement in predictions of a single variable. Our second method constructs...

This paper proposes a simple panel unit root test based on Zaykin et al.’s (2002) truncated product method. The test is powerful in cases where there are only a few large p-values, and is robust to a certain degree of cross-section dependence. Monte Carlo evidence shows good size and power...

We propose an adaptive truncated product method that facilitates the selection of the truncation point among a set of candidates. To efficiently estimate the distribution of the proposed method when the p-values are correlated, we develop a single-layer bootstrap procedure