This paper extends the benchmark Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) term spread approach to recession forecasting by including the stock market macro liquidity deviation factor. We use a probit framework to predict US business cycles, as defined by the NBER between 1959Q1 and 2011Q4. We find that...

The 'irrational exuberance' in the financial markets has been blamed for the recent subprime crisis and the consequent collapse of the global economy in 2008. This study argues that the relationship between measures of stock market 'macro deepness' and 'macro liquidity' can indicate development...

This study analyses the exchange rate regimes and stabilization programs applied by Turkey in the last two decades.Through these analyses, some important points, widely debated in the literature, are questioned. Three important conclusions, which are consistent with the general consensus in the...

The question of whether banks should diversify or focus in their activities may have different implications for a market where the banking industry is more settled versus a growth market that has not yet fully saturated. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether diversification pays off,...

We have examined macroeconomic transmission mechanism by analyzing the interaction process between macroeconomic forces and financial performance variables of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Turkey employing panel data regression method. Our empirical analysis indicates that the...

This paper aims to study in detail the principles and the practices of corporate governance at the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and in the Turkish capital markets, in reference to the OECD corporate governance principles. The fundamental concepts that relate to the principles of corporate...

A fundamental step in the development of financial markets is the introduction of derivative products, which are structured to facilitate hedging. By integrating the expectations on the future prices of securities into the market transactions, the resultant liquidity increases the...

This study focuses on a certain aspect of substitution effect between FX and stock market investments. The motivation for this approach is that a forecast of future correlations and volatilities is the basis for pricing models, according to Engle (2002). Forecasts are obtained via a methodology...

The process of full membership of Turkey to the EU which was accelerated with the confirmation of Turkey’s candidate status covers the harmonization of the Turkish capital markets with the financial markets of the EU. The competitive environment created by transition to the single currency...

This study focuses on a certain aspect of substitution effect between FX and stock market investments. The motivation for this approach is that a forecast of future correlations and volatilities is the basis for pricing models, according to Engle (2002). Forecasts are obtained via a methodology...