Does news about future productivity cause business-cycle fluctuations? What other effects might it have? We explore the answer to this question using semi-structural VARs, where “news” is defined as the innovation in the expectation of TFP at a fixed horizon in the future. We find that...

Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have significantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A...

We study the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) - the first and largest youth training program in the U.S. in operation between 1933 and 1942 - to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the short- and long-term effects of means-tested youth employment programs. We use digitized enrollee...

We study the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) – the first and largest youth training program in the U.S. in operation between 1933 and 1942 – to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the short- and long-term effects of means-tested youth employment programs. We use digitized...

"Employing the neutral Kindleberger definition of a bubble as "an upward price movement over an extended range that then implodes", this paper explores the causes of the "Japanese Bubble" of 1985 to 1990 without precluding the possibility that the bubble was due to perceptions of fundamentals....

Does news about future productivity cause business-cycle fluctuations? What other effects might it have? We explore the answer to this question using semi-structural VARs, where "news" is defined as the innovation in the expectation of TFP at a fixed horizon in the future. We find that systems...