I use Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to forecast global temperatures and sea level and ice cover in the Northerin emisphere until 2010, by exploiting (i) their long-run equilibrium relationship with climate change drivers (CCDs) and (ii) the relationship between world GDP and...

Data from 20 hyperinflations provide no evidence of a Laffer curve for seignorage: rather, the relationship between money growth and seignorage has been uniformly positive at all inflation rates. Consistent with this, evidence shows that the most plausible money demand specification for...

I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end of the XXI century by exploiting their cointegration with the Joint Radiative Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario, the most favorable median forecast predicts the land...

Evidence from monetary VARs for ten countries points towards an unfavorable trade-off between leaning against credit fluctuations and stabilizing real economic activity. Results are robust both across countries, and based on two alternative approaches, i.e. either (i) focusing on the impact of...

Building upon the insight that M1 velocity is the permanent component of nominal interest rates - see Benati (2020) - I propose a novel, and straightforward approach to estimating the natural rate of interest, which is conceptually related to Cochrane's (1994a) proposal to estimate the permanent...

We explore the welfare costs of inflation originating from lack of liquidity satiation for Weimar Republic's hyperinflation and three high-inflation countries. Towards the peak of Weimar's hyperinflation the costs are estimated to have been equal to nearly 20 per cent of income. For Israel,...

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a 'pure' spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which...

We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a dataset comprising 32 countries since 1851. We report six main findings: (1) Evidence of cointegration between velocity and the short rate is widespread. (2) Evidence of breaks or time-variation in cointegration relationships is weak to...