This paper examines the forecast accuracy of cointegrated vector autoregressive models when confronted with extreme observations at the end of the sample period. It focuses on comparing two outlier correction methods, additive outliers and innovational outliers, within a forecasting framework...

The recent boom in house prices in many countries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the possibility of household financial distress are of concern among some central banks. We revisit the empirical modelling of house prices and household debt with a policy-oriented perspective using Norwegian...

This paper presents likelihood analysis of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregression with piecewise linear deterministic terms. Limiting behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators are derived, which is used to further derive the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic for...

This paper presents likelihood analysis of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregression with piecewise linear deterministic terms. Limiting behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators are derived, which is used to further derive the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic for...

This paper addresses the question of whether a conventional approach to cointegration is applicaple to the case where changes are allowed in the parameters for the short term dynamics. We reparametrise a vector autoregressive model such that the short-run parameters exhibiting changes at known...

This note aims to investigate time series properties of a dynamic system for Japan's aggregate import demand. A multivariate cointegration analysis of Japanese data reveals a stable economic linkage interpretable as a long-run import demand function. A vector equilibrium correction system is...

This note investigates the behaviour of a parameter-constancy test statistic when near I(2) (integrated of order 2) variables are incorporated in a cointegrated vector autoregressive system. Simulation studies indicate that the presence of such variables has a significant impact on size...

This note conducts recursive Monte Carlo experiments on the Bartlett correction for a likelihood-based test on cointegrating vectors. The experiments show that the correction can reduce size distortions even in situations where regularity conditions for I(1) cointegration analysis are satisfied...

This note aims to investigate time series properties of a dynamic system for Japan's aggregate import demand. A multivariate cointegration analysis of Japanese data reveals a stable economic linkage interpretable as a long-run import demand function. A vector equilibrium correction system is...

This paper addresses the question of whether a conventional approach to cointegration is applicaple to the case where changes are allowed in the parameters for the short term dynamics. We reparametrise a vector autoregressive model such that the short-run parameters exhibiting changes at known...