My dissertation studies the dynamics of primary commodity prices empirically and theoretically. In Chapter II, I provide empirical evidence on the time series behavior of commodity price movements. Employing monthly prices for 36 individual commodities, I find that the commodity price to CPI...

Cole and Obstfeld (1991) exposited a classic result where equilibrium movements in the terms of trade could make ex ante risk-sharing arrangements unnecessary: a unity elasticity of substitution across goods and production specialization. This paper extends their model to N countries and M...

This paper analyzes long term dependence between the market value of oil firms and oil prices. Applying nonlinear cointegration, the results show that in the long-run oil price hikes and falls show different adjustments to the equilibrium. Using a momentum threshold autoregressive model (MTAR),...

We examine the mechanism through which a financial crisis affects the default risk of real economy firms. We find that firms with strong dependence on bank financing suffer from higher increases in default risk than firms with no such dependence. Conversely, firms that rely solely on financing...

We extend the Cole and Obstfeld model in a number of directions to more accurately assess the terms of trade channel. Two crucial theoretical extensions are: to allow multiple producers of each primary commodity and to allow for incomplete specialization.We find that the negative correlation...

Recent research has identified several industry-related patterns that standard asset pricing models cannot explain effectively. This paper investigates whether industry commodity dependence affects the cross section of stock returns, using the case of oil industry. The results show that in the...

We hypothesize and find empirical evidence that two structural constraints of the industry are informative in the corporate failure prediction, industry concentration and dependence on customers and suppliers. Using an extensive database on corporate failures and bankruptcies in U.S. market from...

We study the extent to which the impact of tail risk spillovers, originating in the financial sector and affecting real-economy firms, depends on the level of cash holdings and the financial conditions of the firm. Empirical evidence on 4,320 firms located in 16 European countries, from 2003 to...