While international humanitarian access in Burma has opened up over the past decade and a half, the ongoing debate regarding the appropriate relationship between politics and humanitarian assistance remains unresolved. This debate has become especially limiting in regards to protection measures...

We develop a methodology to model factor returns in scenarios which are yet to occur or do not correspond to past market conditions. We infer factor performance conditional on hypothetical market-driven scenarios, which are determined by a parsimonious number of underlying policy shocks. We...

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 68-06, Section: A, page: 2588.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 67-04, Section: A, page: 1460.

We examine the link between equity risk premiums and demographic changes using a very long sample over the whole twentieth century for the US, Japan, UK, Germany and France, and a shorter sample covering the last third of the twentieth century for fifteen countries. We find that demographic...

We estimate Taylor (1993) rules and identify monetary policy shocks using no-arbitrage pricing techniques. Long-term interest rates are risk-adjusted expected values of future short rates and thus provide strong over-identifying restrictions about the policy rule used by the Federal Reserve. The...

A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that completely characterizes expectations of GDP. The...

Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates or expected inflation, or both. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve. We find that the...

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free...